By: Jude Amory
The 2024 Sri Lankan Presidential Election marked a significant turning point in the island nation’s political landscape, with Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), emerging as the victor. This rise of the JVP to the highest office in the country reflects deeper, long-term shifts in Sri Lankan politics, a result of growing dissatisfaction with traditional political parties and their inability to address the pressing issues facing the country. Over the past decade, Sri Lanka has witnessed a recurring cycle of political change, fuelled by disillusionment with sitting governments. The JVP’s ascent in 2024 can be seen as the latest phase in this broader context of continuous leadership turnover, driven by a public that has become increasingly restless with promises unfulfilled and crises unresolved.
The seeds of the JVP’s rise to power in 2024 were sown in the political turbulence of the past decade. This era has been marked by a clear pattern – a leader comes into power, the government fails to meet public expectations, and the electorate votes for change. From 2005 to 2015, Mahinda Rajapaksa’s presidency was defined by his leadership during the final stages of Sri Lanka’s civil war and his efforts to stabilise the country post-conflict. His tenure saw economic growth, infrastructure development, and an overall sense of stability. However, by the end of his second term, cracks had begun to appear. Accusations of authoritarianism, nepotism, and corruption started to erode the public’s trust in his government.
A growing desire for change culminated in the 2015 election, where the electorate turned away from Rajapaksa and voted in Maithripala Sirisena, who campaigned on promises of good governance, transparency, and a break from the dynastic rule of the Rajapaksa family. Sirisena’s victory was symbolic of the public’s demand for new leadership, and it represented a shift towards a more reformist agenda. Despite Sirisena’s victory on a platform of reform, his government struggled to deliver on its promises. Internal divisions within the coalition, economic challenges, and the mishandling of key issues, such as the fallout from the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks, led to widespread dissatisfaction. Instead of becoming a beacon of change, Sirisena’s government became synonymous with inefficiency and indecisiveness. The public grew increasingly frustrated, and once again, the demand for a strong leader grew.
This frustration led to the resurgence of the Rajapaksa family, with Gotabaya Rajapaksa winning the 2019 presidential election on a platform of national security and stability. In the wake of the devastating Easter Sunday attacks, Gotabaya’s background as a former military officer appealed to a public desperate for protection and strong governance. He capitalised on the electorate’s fear and dissatisfaction with the Sirisena government’s perceived incompetence. However, Gotabaya’s presidency quickly crumbled under the weight of the country’s growing economic crisis, exacerbated by a series of ill-advised policy decisions. His government’s mishandling of the foreign reserves crisis, mismanagement of food security following the controversial fertiliser ban, and reluctance to seek timely help from the IMF caused a full-blown economic collapse in 2022. The country plunged into chaos, with inflation soaring, essential goods becoming scarce, and public protests erupting across the island.
The Aragalaya movement of 2022, largely coordinated by the JVP and its allied organisations, capitalised on the public’s anger and disillusionment. It became a rallying cry for change, with demands for the Rajapaksas to step down. The protests, which represented a wide cross-section of Sri Lankan society, symbolised a complete rejection of the political elite and their decades-long grip on power. Gotabaya’s eventual resignation marked a historic moment in Sri Lanka’s political history and set the stage for the JVP to rise as a serious contender for power in 2024.
In the 2024 election, the JVP positioned itself as the party of radical change. Led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the party campaigned on a platform of rooting out corruption, punishing those responsible for the economic collapse, and providing a fresh start for Sri Lanka. The JVP capitalised on the anger, frustration, and betrayal felt by former Gotabaya voters, many of whom had been mocked and ridiculed for supporting him in 2019. One key reason for the JVP’s success was its ability to portray itself as an outsider to the political establishment, untainted by the corruption and nepotism that had plagued both the SLPP and Yahapalanaya governments. The JVP’s historic association with revolution and its appeal to the working class, university students, and youth provided it with a solid voter base. This was particularly evident during the Aragalaya protests, where JVP-aligned groups and student organisations played a leading role in mobilising public support.
A significant factor in the JVP’s victory was its ability to harness the energy and enthusiasm of the youth, particularly university students. Government university students in Sri Lanka have historically been sympathetic to revolutionary ideologies like those espoused by the JVP. They are vocal opponents of the privatisation of education and have long resisted the development of private campuses and colleges, which they see as elitist and a threat to free, equitable access to higher education. For example, government university students vehemently opposed the establishment of private medical colleges like SAITM and the granting of permission for private universities like NSBM to conduct medical courses. The JVP, aligning itself with these sentiments, promised to protect the public education system from privatisation and corporatisation, further strengthening its appeal among students.
The JVP’s messaging, including slogans like ‘Don’t mess with the new generation’, tapped into a sense of youthful pride and rebellion. This slogan, while empowering on the surface, served as a rallying cry to mobilise the youth against the ‘system’ and the political establishment, effectively channelling their rebellious energy into support for the JVP’s broader political agenda.
While the JVP’s victory has brought hope for change, there are early signs that political gimmicks may play a role in their strategy as they prepare for the upcoming general elections. One such example is the highly publicised return of government vehicles by ministers, a spectacle widely covered by the media. The vehicles, parked near Galle Face, were portrayed as part of the JVP’s crackdown on government excess. However, it is important to note that this is standard practice whenever parliament is dissolved – vehicles are always returned and then reissued to the newly appointed ministries. The deceptiveness of media groups and pro-JVP voices are not uncommon in the Sri Lankan (or even global) political space.
The JVP’s decision to make this a public display is an example of a political maneuver aimed at reinforcing their anti-corruption stance. As the general election approaches, the public should expect more such actions, designed to appeal to voters’ desire for accountability and transparency. There may even be instances where politicians are temporarily jailed, further dramatising the JVP’s efforts to clean up the system. While these actions may generate media attention and boost public support, voters should remain cautious about exaggerated claims and look beyond surface-level gestures.
Sri Lanka’s electorate, having witnessed multiple cycles of political change over the past decade, must remain vigilant. While the JVP’s promises of reform and anti-corruption measures are encouraging, real change will require more than symbolic gestures. If the JVP can effectively reduce corruption, improve governance, and address the economic challenges facing the country, they have the potential to steer Sri Lanka towards a brighter future.
However, it’s also important that the public does not get swept away by political theatrics. Sri Lanka’s political history is full of grand promises and flashy media spectacles that have failed to deliver long-term solutions. The JVP’s ability to navigate the complexities of governance and live up to its commitments will be the true test of its leadership. The rest is merely smoke and mirrors in the grand act of politics.
While the JVP’s rise to power in 2024 reflects a broader cycle of political dissatisfaction and change, their success now depends on their ability to deliver tangible improvements to the lives of ordinary Sri Lankans. For now, well wishes to the new JVP government, with the hope that they can break the cycle and usher in a new era of stability and prosperity for Sri Lanka. The public, having experienced multiple waves of hope and disappointment, are watching closely.
Jude Amory is a researcher in security and geopolitics (amoryjude@gmail.com)
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